Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Iran’s supreme leader following his father’s assassination has centered trader attention on his reported injuries from the February 28 strike, ongoing security threats, and the regime’s preference for controlled written statements over verified travel. Credible reporting through September 2026 consistently places him in Tehran or hidden domestic locations for recovery and protection amid active conflict, with Israeli assessments and regime accounts rejecting exile claims while noting limited decision-making capacity. Recent regime efforts, including September statements alleging his presence at a Mashhad shrine, aim to counter speculation but have not altered the lack of confirmed international movement. Low implied probabilities reflect structural barriers such as his constitutional role, war conditions, and absence of primary-source evidence of departure, with any shift likely tied to verifiable health disclosures, diplomatic developments, or escalation in the conflict.