Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
Politics·Gaza

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

icon for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
Politics·Gaza

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?

Oct 31

Dec 31

Oct 31

Dec 31

5% chance
Polymarket
NEW
5% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of active diplomatic processes that could produce a formal signing. Recent developments center on deepening ties with existing participants, such as the September 2026 agreement between Israel, Morocco, and the United States to upgrade diplomatic missions to full embassies, restore direct flights, and finalize investment pacts by year-end. Speculation about potential future members like Kuwait has surfaced in official comments estimating timelines of four to six months, while broader pushes involving Saudi Arabia or others remain stalled amid regional security dynamics and Palestinian-related conditions. No scheduled summits or verified breakthroughs align with the immediate deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,864
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of active diplomatic processes that could produce a formal signing. Recent developments center on deepening ties with existing participants, such as the September 2026 agreement between Israel, Morocco, and the United States to upgrade diplomatic missions to full embassies, restore direct flights, and finalize investment pacts by year-end. Speculation about potential future members like Kuwait has surfaced in official comments estimating timelines of four to six months, while broader pushes involving Saudi Arabia or others remain stalled amid regional security dynamics and Palestinian-related conditions. No scheduled summits or verified breakthroughs align with the immediate deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,864
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

9%
icon for Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

10%
icon for Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

10%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.