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icon for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Geopolitics·Gaza

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

icon for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Geopolitics·Gaza

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Oct 31

Dec 31

Oct 31

Dec 31

9% chance
Polymarket

$307,215 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$307,215 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus pricing “No” at 90.7% reflects the narrow window remaining until December 31, 2026, and the absence of any confirmed pathway for a new signatory.** Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent expansion, while prospective candidates face persistent structural hurdles. Saudi Arabia continues to link normalization to a credible Palestinian statehood track, and U.S. nuclear cooperation remains conditioned on Abraham Accords membership without Riyadh committing. Recent comments from Israel’s UAE ambassador floated Kuwait as a possible addition within four to six months—placing any move after the resolution date—while domestic political constraints in Kuwait and stalled talks with Syria or Lebanon reinforce the timeline challenge. Upgrades to existing ties, such as Morocco’s embassy elevation, do not constitute new accessions. With no scheduled summits or breakthroughs expected before year-end, market pricing aligns with the limited diplomatic momentum observed in the final months of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$307,215
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus pricing “No” at 90.7% reflects the narrow window remaining until December 31, 2026, and the absence of any confirmed pathway for a new signatory.** Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent expansion, while prospective candidates face persistent structural hurdles. Saudi Arabia continues to link normalization to a credible Palestinian statehood track, and U.S. nuclear cooperation remains conditioned on Abraham Accords membership without Riyadh committing. Recent comments from Israel’s UAE ambassador floated Kuwait as a possible addition within four to six months—placing any move after the resolution date—while domestic political constraints in Kuwait and stalled talks with Syria or Lebanon reinforce the timeline challenge. Upgrades to existing ties, such as Morocco’s embassy elevation, do not constitute new accessions. With no scheduled summits or breakthroughs expected before year-end, market pricing aligns with the limited diplomatic momentum observed in the final months of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$307,215
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" has generated $307.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.