Ongoing legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, alongside health policy figures like Anthony Fauci and activist Mahmoud Khalil, shapes trader focus in this multi-outcome market. Recent catalysts include Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony invoking the Fifth Amendment repeatedly on COVID-19 matters and court developments around Khalil’s prior ICE detention that could enable further enforcement or deportation proceedings. Broader factors encompass federal fraud and corruption investigations, ICE operations targeting networks, and select international cases such as those involving Lee Jae-myung in South Korea or ongoing Israeli proceedings. Low individual probabilities reflect high procedural barriers, including indictment thresholds, statutes of limitations, and institutional protections, with resolution tied to any qualifying arrest or detention by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$411,955 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
9%
John Brennan
22%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
11%
Adam Schiff
2%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
21%
James Clapper
11%
Letitia James
9%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
Susan Rice
8%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
5%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
11%
Lisa Cook
3%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$411,955 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$164,421 Vol.
9%
John Brennan
$22,244 Vol.
22%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,455 Vol.
11%
Adam Schiff
$16,570 Vol.
2%
Barack Obama
$29,276 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$10,821 Vol.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,329 Vol.
21%
James Clapper
$7,264 Vol.
11%
Letitia James
$3,047 Vol.
9%
Hillary Clinton
$26,182 Vol.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,726 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 Vol.
8%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,425 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,936 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$503 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$41,331 Vol.
5%
Kash Patel
$598 Vol.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,290 Vol.
11%
Lisa Cook
$4,005 Vol.
3%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,565 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, alongside health policy figures like Anthony Fauci and activist Mahmoud Khalil, shapes trader focus in this multi-outcome market. Recent catalysts include Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony invoking the Fifth Amendment repeatedly on COVID-19 matters and court developments around Khalil’s prior ICE detention that could enable further enforcement or deportation proceedings. Broader factors encompass federal fraud and corruption investigations, ICE operations targeting networks, and select international cases such as those involving Lee Jae-myung in South Korea or ongoing Israeli proceedings. Low individual probabilities reflect high procedural barriers, including indictment thresholds, statutes of limitations, and institutional protections, with resolution tied to any qualifying arrest or detention by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$411,955Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, alongside health policy figures like Anthony Fauci and activist Mahmoud Khalil, shapes trader focus in this multi-outcome market. Recent catalysts include Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony invoking the Fifth Amendment repeatedly on COVID-19 matters and court developments around Khalil’s prior ICE detention that could enable further enforcement or deportation proceedings. Broader factors encompass federal fraud and corruption investigations, ICE operations targeting networks, and select international cases such as those involving Lee Jae-myung in South Korea or ongoing Israeli proceedings. Low individual probabilities reflect high procedural barriers, including indictment thresholds, statutes of limitations, and institutional protections, with resolution tied to any qualifying arrest or detention by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$411,955Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, alongside health policy figures like Anthony Fauci and activist Mahmoud Khalil, shapes trader focus in this multi-outcome market. Recent catalysts include Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony invoking the Fifth Amendment repeatedly on COVID-19 matters and court developments around Khalil’s prior ICE detention that could enable further enforcement or deportation proceedings. Broader factors encompass federal fraud and corruption investigations, ICE operations targeting networks, and select international cases such as those involving Lee Jae-myung in South Korea or ongoing Israeli proceedings. Low individual probabilities reflect high procedural barriers, including indictment thresholds, statutes of limitations, and institutional protections, with resolution tied to any qualifying arrest or detention by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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