Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Tesla Roadster delivered by...?
Tech·Tesla

Tesla Roadster delivered by...?

icon for Tesla Roadster delivered by...?
Tech·Tesla

Tesla Roadster delivered by...?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,210 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2026

$1,040 Vol.

4%

December 31, 2027

$170 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's next-generation Roadster remains years behind original 2020 delivery targets after repeated timeline shifts, with production now eyed for 2027–2028 at Gigafactory Texas. Trader sentiment centers on the October 1, 2026, production-intent unveiling in Waco, which could showcase a redesigned vehicle and optional SpaceX cold-gas thrusters for enhanced performance. Recent executive comments confirm the platform moved beyond the 2017 concept, yet historical slips and the typical 12–18 month gap between unveil and customer deliveries keep near-term resolution probabilities tempered despite the fresh catalyst.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify.

A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify.

Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe.

Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,210
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's next-generation Roadster remains years behind original 2020 delivery targets after repeated timeline shifts, with production now eyed for 2027–2028 at Gigafactory Texas. Trader sentiment centers on the October 1, 2026, production-intent unveiling in Waco, which could showcase a redesigned vehicle and optional SpaceX cold-gas thrusters for enhanced performance. Recent executive comments confirm the platform moved beyond the 2017 concept, yet historical slips and the typical 12–18 month gap between unveil and customer deliveries keep near-term resolution probabilities tempered despite the fresh catalyst.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify.

A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify.

Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe.

Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,210
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

10%
icon for Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by January 31, 2027?

Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by January 31, 2027?

49%
icon for Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?

Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?

4%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Tesla Roadster delivered by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2027" at 38%, followed by "December 31, 2026" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tesla Roadster delivered by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tesla Roadster delivered by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tesla Roadster delivered by...?" is "December 31, 2027" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tesla Roadster delivered by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.