Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$2,833End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,833End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions