Jess Wilson leads the market at 65.5% as Leader of the Victorian Liberal Party and opposition, positioning her as the frontrunner ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election. Labor’s July 2026 leadership spill, which installed Ben Carroll after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid caucus pressure over construction sector issues and declining approval, has not reversed the government’s polling slide, with primary support remaining weak and preferences flowing toward the Coalition. Carroll sits at 23.4% while other Labor figures such as Sonya Kilkenny trail further, reflecting limited trader confidence in a Labor retention. Scheduled campaign events, cost-of-living messaging, and any late shifts in preference flows between Liberals and minor parties remain the main variables that could alter these implied probabilities before polling day.