Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence following the July 16, 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—has shaped trader views on the next Kimi K variant. The company has delivered incremental flagships roughly every two to three months (K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June), leveraging Kimi Delta Attention and Attention Residuals for efficiency gains that close gaps with closed models like Claude Fable 5 on coding and agentic benchmarks. Strong API uptake, open-weight distribution under a custom license, and integrations such as GitHub Copilot have reinforced expectations of continued momentum. Key swing factors include any official timeline hints at developer events or earnings updates through year-end, alongside competitive responses from DeepSeek or Qwen that could accelerate or delay Moonshot’s schedule.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,980 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 15, 2026
5%
September 30, 2026
82%
December 31, 2026
99%
$15,980 Vol.
September 15, 2026
$1,921 Vol.
5%
September 30, 2026
$9,944 Vol.
82%
December 31, 2026
$2,188 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence following the July 16, 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—has shaped trader views on the next Kimi K variant. The company has delivered incremental flagships roughly every two to three months (K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June), leveraging Kimi Delta Attention and Attention Residuals for efficiency gains that close gaps with closed models like Claude Fable 5 on coding and agentic benchmarks. Strong API uptake, open-weight distribution under a custom license, and integrations such as GitHub Copilot have reinforced expectations of continued momentum. Key swing factors include any official timeline hints at developer events or earnings updates through year-end, alongside competitive responses from DeepSeek or Qwen that could accelerate or delay Moonshot’s schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$15,980End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence following the July 16, 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—has shaped trader views on the next Kimi K variant. The company has delivered incremental flagships roughly every two to three months (K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June), leveraging Kimi Delta Attention and Attention Residuals for efficiency gains that close gaps with closed models like Claude Fable 5 on coding and agentic benchmarks. Strong API uptake, open-weight distribution under a custom license, and integrations such as GitHub Copilot have reinforced expectations of continued momentum. Key swing factors include any official timeline hints at developer events or earnings updates through year-end, alongside competitive responses from DeepSeek or Qwen that could accelerate or delay Moonshot’s schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,980End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence following the July 16, 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—has shaped trader views on the next Kimi K variant. The company has delivered incremental flagships roughly every two to three months (K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June), leveraging Kimi Delta Attention and Attention Residuals for efficiency gains that close gaps with closed models like Claude Fable 5 on coding and agentic benchmarks. Strong API uptake, open-weight distribution under a custom license, and integrations such as GitHub Copilot have reinforced expectations of continued momentum. Key swing factors include any official timeline hints at developer events or earnings updates through year-end, alongside competitive responses from DeepSeek or Qwen that could accelerate or delay Moonshot’s schedule.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions