Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,303 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,303 Vol.
September 30
$3,394 Vol.
5%
October 31
$6,384 Vol.
74%
November 30
$2,524 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,303End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,303End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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