**Trader consensus centers on a 26–28°C minimum for Shenzhen on September 23, 2026, with closely matched implied probabilities reflecting forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Persistent cloud cover and high humidity (near 80%) suppress heat loss in this subtropical monsoon climate, while light easterly winds and the urban heat island effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply. Official guidance shows lows around 26°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, consistent with late-summer patterns where diurnal ranges remain narrow. Model spreads between 25°C and 28°C hinge on exact cloud timing and local measurement variations at stations, with resolution depending on final China Meteorological Administration observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
28°C 100%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$1,040 Vol.
$1,040 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$1,040 Vol.
$1,040 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
22°C or below
$315 Vol.
No
23°C
$25 Vol.
No
24°C
$115 Vol.
No
25°C
$15 Vol.
No
26°C
$20 Vol.
No
27°C
$29 Vol.
No
28°C
$66 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$15 Vol.
No
30°C
$59 Vol.
No
31°C
$165 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$215 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 26–28°C minimum for Shenzhen on September 23, 2026, with closely matched implied probabilities reflecting forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Persistent cloud cover and high humidity (near 80%) suppress heat loss in this subtropical monsoon climate, while light easterly winds and the urban heat island effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply. Official guidance shows lows around 26°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, consistent with late-summer patterns where diurnal ranges remain narrow. Model spreads between 25°C and 28°C hinge on exact cloud timing and local measurement variations at stations, with resolution depending on final China Meteorological Administration observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,040End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 26–28°C minimum for Shenzhen on September 23, 2026, with closely matched implied probabilities reflecting forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Persistent cloud cover and high humidity (near 80%) suppress heat loss in this subtropical monsoon climate, while light easterly winds and the urban heat island effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply. Official guidance shows lows around 26°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, consistent with late-summer patterns where diurnal ranges remain narrow. Model spreads between 25°C and 28°C hinge on exact cloud timing and local measurement variations at stations, with resolution depending on final China Meteorological Administration observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,040End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus centers on a 26–28°C minimum for Shenzhen on September 23, 2026, with closely matched implied probabilities reflecting forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Persistent cloud cover and high humidity (near 80%) suppress heat loss in this subtropical monsoon climate, while light easterly winds and the urban heat island effect keep temperatures from dropping sharply. Official guidance shows lows around 26°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, consistent with late-summer patterns where diurnal ranges remain narrow. Model spreads between 25°C and 28°C hinge on exact cloud timing and local measurement variations at stations, with resolution depending on final China Meteorological Administration observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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