Traders have driven the implied probability for a 13–14°C low in Qingdao on September 22 heavily higher because current observational data and short-range model guidance from agencies including NOAA and the China Meteorological Administration point to enhanced overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies with light winds. This setup allows surface temperatures at the Jiaodong International Airport station to drop more than seasonal norms, with recent hourly readings already trending toward the low 20s Celsius and model consensus favoring further decline before dawn. The 55% price on exactly 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C or below reflect this consensus, while negligible odds above 15°C indicate limited upside risk from warmer advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and station observations through the night remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 22?
14°C 100%
13°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$742 Vol.
$742 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
14°C 100%
13°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$742 Vol.
$742 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
13°C or below
$60 Vol.
No
14°C
$292 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$145 Vol.
No
16°C
$45 Vol.
No
17°C
$105 Vol.
No
18°C
$15 Vol.
No
19°C
$20 Vol.
No
20°C
$15 Vol.
No
21°C
$15 Vol.
No
22°C
$15 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have driven the implied probability for a 13–14°C low in Qingdao on September 22 heavily higher because current observational data and short-range model guidance from agencies including NOAA and the China Meteorological Administration point to enhanced overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies with light winds. This setup allows surface temperatures at the Jiaodong International Airport station to drop more than seasonal norms, with recent hourly readings already trending toward the low 20s Celsius and model consensus favoring further decline before dawn. The 55% price on exactly 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C or below reflect this consensus, while negligible odds above 15°C indicate limited upside risk from warmer advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and station observations through the night remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$742End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have driven the implied probability for a 13–14°C low in Qingdao on September 22 heavily higher because current observational data and short-range model guidance from agencies including NOAA and the China Meteorological Administration point to enhanced overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies with light winds. This setup allows surface temperatures at the Jiaodong International Airport station to drop more than seasonal norms, with recent hourly readings already trending toward the low 20s Celsius and model consensus favoring further decline before dawn. The 55% price on exactly 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C or below reflect this consensus, while negligible odds above 15°C indicate limited upside risk from warmer advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and station observations through the night remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$742End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have driven the implied probability for a 13–14°C low in Qingdao on September 22 heavily higher because current observational data and short-range model guidance from agencies including NOAA and the China Meteorological Administration point to enhanced overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies with light winds. This setup allows surface temperatures at the Jiaodong International Airport station to drop more than seasonal norms, with recent hourly readings already trending toward the low 20s Celsius and model consensus favoring further decline before dawn. The 55% price on exactly 14°C and 25.5% on 13°C or below reflect this consensus, while negligible odds above 15°C indicate limited upside risk from warmer advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and station observations through the night remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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