Forecast models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show Milan’s overnight minimum on September 21 holding near 19–20°C under stable high pressure and light easterly flow, well above the 16°C threshold. This reflects typical early-autumn conditions with limited cold-air advection from the Alps and persistent cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Historical September minima for the city average around 16–18°C, yet current observations and ensemble guidance place this night comfortably warmer. Only an unforecasted sharp frontal passage or localized measurement anomaly at the official station could push the daily low to 15°C or below, scenarios assigned negligible probability by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 21?
16°C 100%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$531 Vol.
$531 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$531 Vol.
$531 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
11°C
$0 Vol.
No
12°C
$65 Vol.
No
13°C
$0 Vol.
No
14°C
$0 Vol.
No
15°C
$0 Vol.
No
16°C
$240 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$176 Vol.
No
18°C
$35 Vol.
No
19°C
$0 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show Milan’s overnight minimum on September 21 holding near 19–20°C under stable high pressure and light easterly flow, well above the 16°C threshold. This reflects typical early-autumn conditions with limited cold-air advection from the Alps and persistent cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Historical September minima for the city average around 16–18°C, yet current observations and ensemble guidance place this night comfortably warmer. Only an unforecasted sharp frontal passage or localized measurement anomaly at the official station could push the daily low to 15°C or below, scenarios assigned negligible probability by traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$531End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show Milan’s overnight minimum on September 21 holding near 19–20°C under stable high pressure and light easterly flow, well above the 16°C threshold. This reflects typical early-autumn conditions with limited cold-air advection from the Alps and persistent cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Historical September minima for the city average around 16–18°C, yet current observations and ensemble guidance place this night comfortably warmer. Only an unforecasted sharp frontal passage or localized measurement anomaly at the official station could push the daily low to 15°C or below, scenarios assigned negligible probability by traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$531End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS runs, show Milan’s overnight minimum on September 21 holding near 19–20°C under stable high pressure and light easterly flow, well above the 16°C threshold. This reflects typical early-autumn conditions with limited cold-air advection from the Alps and persistent cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. Historical September minima for the city average around 16–18°C, yet current observations and ensemble guidance place this night comfortably warmer. Only an unforecasted sharp frontal passage or localized measurement anomaly at the official station could push the daily low to 15°C or below, scenarios assigned negligible probability by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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