Current forecast models from sources like the GFS show Amsterdam's overnight minimum on September 20 settling near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 km/h, and light shower chances that limit radiative cooling. These conditions favor a low around 12–13°C rather than deeper drops, as persistent cloud cover and wind mixing reduce heat loss compared to clear, calm nights. The near-even split between the 12°C and 10°C-or-below outcomes reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and dew-point depression, with historical September minima averaging near 11–12°C providing limited guidance. Updated observations through the evening will clarify whether clearer breaks allow temperatures to edge lower before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 20?
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$407 Vol.
$407 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$407 Vol.
$407 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
$31 Vol.
No
11°C
$15 Vol.
No
12°C
$20 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$51 Vol.
No
14°C
$31 Vol.
No
15°C
$47 Vol.
No
16°C
$46 Vol.
No
17°C
$42 Vol.
No
18°C
$41 Vol.
No
19°C
$41 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$41 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the GFS show Amsterdam's overnight minimum on September 20 settling near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 km/h, and light shower chances that limit radiative cooling. These conditions favor a low around 12–13°C rather than deeper drops, as persistent cloud cover and wind mixing reduce heat loss compared to clear, calm nights. The near-even split between the 12°C and 10°C-or-below outcomes reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and dew-point depression, with historical September minima averaging near 11–12°C providing limited guidance. Updated observations through the evening will clarify whether clearer breaks allow temperatures to edge lower before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$407End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the GFS show Amsterdam's overnight minimum on September 20 settling near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 km/h, and light shower chances that limit radiative cooling. These conditions favor a low around 12–13°C rather than deeper drops, as persistent cloud cover and wind mixing reduce heat loss compared to clear, calm nights. The near-even split between the 12°C and 10°C-or-below outcomes reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and dew-point depression, with historical September minima averaging near 11–12°C providing limited guidance. Updated observations through the evening will clarify whether clearer breaks allow temperatures to edge lower before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$407End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecast models from sources like the GFS show Amsterdam's overnight minimum on September 20 settling near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds of 10–20 km/h, and light shower chances that limit radiative cooling. These conditions favor a low around 12–13°C rather than deeper drops, as persistent cloud cover and wind mixing reduce heat loss compared to clear, calm nights. The near-even split between the 12°C and 10°C-or-below outcomes reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and dew-point depression, with historical September minima averaging near 11–12°C providing limited guidance. Updated observations through the evening will clarify whether clearer breaks allow temperatures to edge lower before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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