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Politics·Louisiana Primary

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

icon for LA-05 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Louisiana Primary

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

Michael Echols 8.2%

Misti Cordell 3.2%

Blake Miguez 2.6%

Michael Mebruer 1.8%

Polymarket

$63,600 Vol.

Michael Echols 8.2%

Misti Cordell 3.2%

Blake Miguez 2.6%

Michael Mebruer 1.8%

Polymarket

$63,600 Vol.

Michael Echols

$14,673 Vol.

8%

Misti Cordell

$1,906 Vol.

3%

Blake Miguez

$31,535 Vol.

3%

Michael Mebruer

$1,323 Vol.

2%

Samuel Wyatt

$6,114 Vol.

2%

Rick Edmonds

$5,960 Vol.

2%

Austin Magee

$2,089 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**The fragmented field in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District stems from the shift to an open/jungle primary on November 3, 2026, following redistricting and Julia Letlow’s decision to run for Senate.** Multiple Republicans with state legislative experience—including Michael Echols (House majority leader with strong Monroe-area fundraising and local name recognition), Misti Cordell (Board of Regents chair backed by party endorsement and gubernatorial ties), Stewart Cathey, and Gabe Firment—compete alongside lesser-known contenders. Earlier Trump endorsement momentum for Blake Miguez shifted with map changes, leaving no dominant frontrunner. Recent candidate qualifying, media campaigns, and polls showing high undecideds sustain the low individual probabilities, as support remains dispersed ahead of the top-two advancement.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$63,600
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**The fragmented field in Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District stems from the shift to an open/jungle primary on November 3, 2026, following redistricting and Julia Letlow’s decision to run for Senate.** Multiple Republicans with state legislative experience—including Michael Echols (House majority leader with strong Monroe-area fundraising and local name recognition), Misti Cordell (Board of Regents chair backed by party endorsement and gubernatorial ties), Stewart Cathey, and Gabe Firment—compete alongside lesser-known contenders. Earlier Trump endorsement momentum for Blake Miguez shifted with map changes, leaving no dominant frontrunner. Recent candidate qualifying, media campaigns, and polls showing high undecideds sustain the low individual probabilities, as support remains dispersed ahead of the top-two advancement.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$63,600
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Echols" at 8%, followed by "Misti Cordell" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $63.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" is "Michael Echols" at just 8%, with "Misti Cordell" close behind at 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.