Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes, leaving enrichment facilities largely inoperable and its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and largely inaccessible under rubble. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm no resumption of enrichment, while recent construction at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz remains under scrutiny without evidence of weaponization or testing preparations. Iranian officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and reject weapons ambitions, though parliamentary rhetoric on potential withdrawal or doctrine changes has surfaced amid the agency’s referral of noncompliance to the UN Security Council. This combination of degraded capabilities, verification gaps, and diplomatic continuity underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden leadership decision, undetected recovery of material, or major escalation could still shift the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes, leaving enrichment facilities largely inoperable and its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and largely inaccessible under rubble. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm no resumption of enrichment, while recent construction at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz remains under scrutiny without evidence of weaponization or testing preparations. Iranian officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and reject weapons ambitions, though parliamentary rhetoric on potential withdrawal or doctrine changes has surfaced amid the agency’s referral of noncompliance to the UN Security Council. This combination of degraded capabilities, verification gaps, and diplomatic continuity underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden leadership decision, undetected recovery of material, or major escalation could still shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$258,465End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes, leaving enrichment facilities largely inoperable and its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and largely inaccessible under rubble. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm no resumption of enrichment, while recent construction at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz remains under scrutiny without evidence of weaponization or testing preparations. Iranian officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and reject weapons ambitions, though parliamentary rhetoric on potential withdrawal or doctrine changes has surfaced amid the agency’s referral of noncompliance to the UN Security Council. This combination of degraded capabilities, verification gaps, and diplomatic continuity underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden leadership decision, undetected recovery of material, or major escalation could still shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$258,465End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes, leaving enrichment facilities largely inoperable and its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and largely inaccessible under rubble. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm no resumption of enrichment, while recent construction at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz remains under scrutiny without evidence of weaponization or testing preparations. Iranian officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and reject weapons ambitions, though parliamentary rhetoric on potential withdrawal or doctrine changes has surfaced amid the agency’s referral of noncompliance to the UN Security Council. This combination of degraded capabilities, verification gaps, and diplomatic continuity underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden leadership decision, undetected recovery of material, or major escalation could still shift the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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