Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIdaho Senate Election Winner
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R) 95.6%
Democrat 3.1%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.1%
$33,326 Vol.
$33,326 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Risch (R)
96%
Democrat
3%
Todd Achilles (I)
1%
Jim Risch (R) 95.6%
Democrat 3.1%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.1%
$33,326 Vol.
$33,326 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Risch (R)
$18,749 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$14,402 Vol.
3%
Todd Achilles (I)
$175 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$33,326End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$33,326End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions