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World·Strike

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

icon for How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
World·Strike

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

8 65.2%

9 29.9%

10 2.4%

11 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,707,031 Vol.

8 65.2%

9 29.9%

10 2.4%

11 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,707,031 Vol.

icon for 8

8

$320,445 Vol.

65%

icon for 9

9

$122,787 Vol.

30%

icon for 10

10

$30,732 Vol.

2%

icon for 11

11

$29,710 Vol.

2%

icon for 12

12

$50,199 Vol.

1%

icon for 13

13

$103,733 Vol.

1%

icon for 14

14

$152,420 Vol.

<1%

icon for 15+

15+

$130,852 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained campaigns against Iran and Venezuela alongside targeted actions in a handful of other nations.** Major combat phases of the Iran war, including Operation Epic Fury and subsequent CENTCOM strikes on IRGC targets, naval assets, and related infrastructure, account for one clear case, while the January 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela—featuring airstrikes and the capture of Nicolás Maduro—marks another. Additional verified actions include airstrikes in Syria against ISIS remnants, operations in Somalia, a March 2026 strike in Ecuador tied to counternarcotics efforts, and ongoing vessel interdictions in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific linked to trafficking networks originating from multiple Latin American countries. Trader positioning around 8–9 countries reflects these established fronts plus incremental expansions in the Western Hemisphere, without evidence of widespread new theaters opening in recent weeks. Potential escalations, such as direct strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen or further land operations in Colombia or elsewhere, remain under discussion but have not yet materialized as confirmed military actions against additional sovereign states. Ongoing regional partnerships and drone reallocations signal possible future increments, yet the current pace supports the narrow clustering at the lower end of the distribution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,707,031
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained campaigns against Iran and Venezuela alongside targeted actions in a handful of other nations.** Major combat phases of the Iran war, including Operation Epic Fury and subsequent CENTCOM strikes on IRGC targets, naval assets, and related infrastructure, account for one clear case, while the January 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela—featuring airstrikes and the capture of Nicolás Maduro—marks another. Additional verified actions include airstrikes in Syria against ISIS remnants, operations in Somalia, a March 2026 strike in Ecuador tied to counternarcotics efforts, and ongoing vessel interdictions in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific linked to trafficking networks originating from multiple Latin American countries. Trader positioning around 8–9 countries reflects these established fronts plus incremental expansions in the Western Hemisphere, without evidence of widespread new theaters opening in recent weeks. Potential escalations, such as direct strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen or further land operations in Colombia or elsewhere, remain under discussion but have not yet materialized as confirmed military actions against additional sovereign states. Ongoing regional partnerships and drone reallocations signal possible future increments, yet the current pace supports the narrow clustering at the lower end of the distribution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,707,031
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8" at 65%, followed by "9" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" is "8" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.