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Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$14,216 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$14,216 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 5.20%

$1,497 Vol.

61%

Below 5.15%

$775 Vol.

56%

Below 5.10%

$1,822 Vol.

43%

Below 5.05%

$234 Vol.

38%

Below 5.00%

$1,930 Vol.

30%

Below 4.95%

$561 Vol.

27%

Below 4.90%

$1,143 Vol.

19%

Below 4.80%

$3,080 Vol.

13%

Below 4.60%

$3,173 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent resilience in U.S. economic growth, elevated inflation readings, and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.3% as of mid-September 2026, up over 50 basis points from a year earlier. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices, heavy Treasury supply amid large fiscal deficits, and rising term premia are sustaining upward pressure on long-term rates. Market-implied expectations now price limited near-term easing, with traders monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, PCE inflation releases, and labor data for signs that could ease or reinforce the higher-for-longer path before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,216
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent resilience in U.S. economic growth, elevated inflation readings, and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.3% as of mid-September 2026, up over 50 basis points from a year earlier. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices, heavy Treasury supply amid large fiscal deficits, and rising term premia are sustaining upward pressure on long-term rates. Market-implied expectations now price limited near-term easing, with traders monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, PCE inflation releases, and labor data for signs that could ease or reinforce the higher-for-longer path before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,216
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Below 5.20%" at 61%, followed by "Below 5.15%" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" has generated $14.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is "Below 5.20%" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Below 5.15%" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.