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icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$286,092 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$286,092 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 3.9%

$54,748 Vol.

3%

Below 3.8%

$62,740 Vol.

2%

Below 3.7%

$35,630 Vol.

3%

Below 3.6%

$8,903 Vol.

2%

Below 3.5%

$43,095 Vol.

2%

Below 3.0%

$7,958 Vol.

1%

Below 2.0%

$564 Vol.

2%

Below 1.0%

$40,696 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with projections showing a 4.1% median federal funds rate for both 2026 and 2027, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 5% amid core PCE inflation readings around 3.4%. Recent data releases and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on persistent price pressures reinforced expectations for higher-for-longer policy, limiting downside in long-term rates after the yield briefly tested 5.01%. Upcoming October and December FOMC meetings, along with CPI and employment reports, represent key catalysts that could shift the market-implied path for yields before the end of 2026. Current trading levels reflect trader consensus on resilient growth and inflation risks rather than aggressive easing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with projections showing a 4.1% median federal funds rate for both 2026 and 2027, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 5% amid core PCE inflation readings around 3.4%. Recent data releases and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on persistent price pressures reinforced expectations for higher-for-longer policy, limiting downside in long-term rates after the yield briefly tested 5.01%. Upcoming October and December FOMC meetings, along with CPI and employment reports, represent key catalysts that could shift the market-implied path for yields before the end of 2026. Current trading levels reflect trader consensus on resilient growth and inflation risks rather than aggressive easing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Below 4.0%" at 100%, followed by "Below 3.9%" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" has generated $286.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is "Below 4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Below 3.9%" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.