Recent data showing resilient U.S. growth and sticky inflation have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to 5.05% as of October 2, with the benchmark briefly exceeding 5% for the first time since 2007. The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike in mid-September to a 3.75–4.00% federal funds target range, combined with strong nominal GDP expansion near 6.6% year-over-year and energy-driven price pressures, has shifted market-implied odds toward additional tightening. Core PCE inflation held at 3.0% annually in August while consumer spending accelerated, reinforcing expectations that the FOMC’s October 27–28 meeting could influence further yield movement. Elevated Treasury supply and a steepening curve add to upward pressure on intermediate rates amid ongoing uncertainty about the pace of any further policy adjustments.