Official meteorological observations from Environment Canada stations in the Toronto area, including Pearson International Airport, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C on September 29, 2026, anchoring the near-certain market-implied odds. This aligns with regional surface analysis showing stable high-pressure influence and modest southerly flow that prevented both stronger warming and cooler advection. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs near 20°C, making the observed value consistent with late-summer patterns. Because the date has passed and data undergo only minor quality-control revisions, alternative outcomes remain improbable absent an unprecedented correction to the official record.