Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional guidance points to a highest temperature in Tokyo on October 1 in the 26–28°C range, driving the market's concentration on those outcomes. A northerly flow and partial clearing after morning clouds support daytime warming to near or slightly above seasonal early-autumn normals, while increasing humidity and a low risk of showers limit stronger heating. Forecast spreads remain modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on official Japan Meteorological Agency observations at key stations; any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind could adjust the exact peak within the tightly clustered probabilities.