Recent forecast consensus from global models positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Munich’s October 4 high, reflecting above-average warmth driven by a ridge of high pressure and light northeasterly flow that limits cloud cover and mixing. Most guidance clusters afternoon maxima between 20–23°C, consistent with the market’s tight distribution around these values and the 45.5% implied probability for 22°C. With the event less than 24 hours away, traders are closely tracking the next model cycles and any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed that could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical October maxima average near 17°C, underscoring the current anomaly and the resolution sensitivity to precise observational thresholds.