Forecast models from GFS and other sources indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain will drive maximum temperatures in Madrid to 29–31°C on September 11, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C (60.5%) and 30°C (29.5%). This range sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5°C for the date, reflecting residual warmth from an anomalously hot early September that saw several days above 34°C. With minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation expected, surface heating will peak in the afternoon under strong insolation, though model consensus shows little support for exceeding 32°C. Updated runs through September 10 reinforce this narrow outcome window ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
31°C 57%
30°C 30%
32°C 10%
28°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
30%
31°C
57%
32°C
10%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 57%
30°C 30%
32°C 10%
28°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$545 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$429 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$242 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$270 Vol.
2%
29°C
$433 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,106 Vol.
30%
31°C
$2,292 Vol.
57%
32°C
$926 Vol.
10%
33°C
$357 Vol.
1%
34°C
$242 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from GFS and other sources indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain will drive maximum temperatures in Madrid to 29–31°C on September 11, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C (60.5%) and 30°C (29.5%). This range sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5°C for the date, reflecting residual warmth from an anomalously hot early September that saw several days above 34°C. With minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation expected, surface heating will peak in the afternoon under strong insolation, though model consensus shows little support for exceeding 32°C. Updated runs through September 10 reinforce this narrow outcome window ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,294End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from GFS and other sources indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain will drive maximum temperatures in Madrid to 29–31°C on September 11, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C (60.5%) and 30°C (29.5%). This range sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5°C for the date, reflecting residual warmth from an anomalously hot early September that saw several days above 34°C. With minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation expected, surface heating will peak in the afternoon under strong insolation, though model consensus shows little support for exceeding 32°C. Updated runs through September 10 reinforce this narrow outcome window ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,294End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from GFS and other sources indicate clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain will drive maximum temperatures in Madrid to 29–31°C on September 11, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 31°C (60.5%) and 30°C (29.5%). This range sits slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5°C for the date, reflecting residual warmth from an anomalously hot early September that saw several days above 34°C. With minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation expected, surface heating will peak in the afternoon under strong insolation, though model consensus shows little support for exceeding 32°C. Updated runs through September 10 reinforce this narrow outcome window ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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