Recent observational data and numerical weather prediction models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid reached a daily maximum of 26°C on October 5 under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms and southerly flow. This aligns with the market's 100% implied probability, as surface observations and reanalysis confirm temperatures stabilized near that threshold without exceeding it amid moderate humidity and light winds. Historical averages for the date hover around 22°C, making the outcome consistent with current synoptic patterns. Resolution could shift only if post-event quality-controlled station data from Buen Retiro or Barajas reveal a higher peak due to localized heating or instrument variance.