Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts place Karachi’s maximum temperature between 38°C and 40°C for September 14 amid hot, humid conditions with 75% relative humidity and light winds. This aligns with the prior day’s observed high of 40.2°C and supports the market’s near-certain pricing on 39°C or higher. Regional moisture from a weakening low-pressure system may trigger isolated afternoon thunderstorms and localized cooling, yet model consensus and official guidance indicate insufficient rainfall or cloud cover to suppress the peak below 39°C. Traders appear to weigh these official thresholds and recent observations heavily when assessing resolution risk.