Persistent overcast skies, light rain, and northeasterly flow associated with a frontal boundary have capped daytime heating across Chongqing on October 2, 2026, producing an observed maximum of 21°C according to official surface stations and aligned forecast guidance. This outcome aligns with climatological expectations for early October, when average highs decline from September’s 27–28°C range amid increasing cloudiness and moisture. Multiple numerical weather models converged on this value through the day, with minimal spread in boundary-layer temperature forecasts, supporting the market’s 100% implied probability. A realistic challenge would require unanticipated clearing that boosts insolation enough to push readings above station thresholds before sunset, though current moisture and stability make such a shift improbable.