The market's near-certain 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Chengdu on September 27 reflects official observational data confirming this exact peak temperature at local meteorological stations. Multiple forecast models converged on a maximum of 27°C amid overcast skies, light northeast winds, and scattered light rain, aligning with typical late-September conditions in the Sichuan basin where daytime highs average near 26–28°C. Official agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration provide the authoritative daily maximum used for resolution, with any final recorded value above or below this threshold representing the only realistic path to a different outcome.