Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida's 28th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with the market's 94% Republican consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its suburban Miami-area and Keys composition plus a partisan lean reinforced by recent redistricting. Giménez, who captured 64.6% in 2024, faces no primary opposition after both parties' August contests were canceled, while Democratic nominee Phil Ehr has limited recent polling traction and fundraising parity. Historical patterns of high incumbent retention in similarly rated districts underpin trader pricing. A late national political shift, unexpected health event, or major scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-28 House Election Winner
FL-28 House Election Winner
$57,564 Vol.
$57,564 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Carlos Giménez (R)
94%
Phil Ehr (D)
6%
$57,564 Vol.
$57,564 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Carlos Giménez (R)
$33,834 Vol.
94%
Phil Ehr (D)
$23,731 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida's 28th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with the market's 94% Republican consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its suburban Miami-area and Keys composition plus a partisan lean reinforced by recent redistricting. Giménez, who captured 64.6% in 2024, faces no primary opposition after both parties' August contests were canceled, while Democratic nominee Phil Ehr has limited recent polling traction and fundraising parity. Historical patterns of high incumbent retention in similarly rated districts underpin trader pricing. A late national political shift, unexpected health event, or major scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$57,564End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida's 28th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with the market's 94% Republican consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its suburban Miami-area and Keys composition plus a partisan lean reinforced by recent redistricting. Giménez, who captured 64.6% in 2024, faces no primary opposition after both parties' August contests were canceled, while Democratic nominee Phil Ehr has limited recent polling traction and fundraising parity. Historical patterns of high incumbent retention in similarly rated districts underpin trader pricing. A late national political shift, unexpected health event, or major scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$57,564End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida's 28th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with the market's 94% Republican consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its suburban Miami-area and Keys composition plus a partisan lean reinforced by recent redistricting. Giménez, who captured 64.6% in 2024, faces no primary opposition after both parties' August contests were canceled, while Democratic nominee Phil Ehr has limited recent polling traction and fundraising parity. Historical patterns of high incumbent retention in similarly rated districts underpin trader pricing. A late national political shift, unexpected health event, or major scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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