Kimi Antonelli holds an 85.3% implied probability in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship market after building a 66-point lead with 267 points following his victory from 19th on the grid at the Italian Grand Prix. The Mercedes driver's seven wins, strong qualifying pace, and consistency across most rounds have capitalized on the team's dominant car under the new regulations, outpacing teammate George Russell and challengers including Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris. With roughly nine events remaining, this margin reflects trader consensus on Antonelli's current form and Mercedes' edge. A string of mechanical issues, crashes, or sustained podium hauls by rivals could still narrow the gap before the season finale.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKimi Antonelli 85.3%
George Russell 5.8%
Lando Norris 2.3%
Lewis Hamilton 1.9%
$202,636,716 Vol.
$202,636,716 Vol.
Dec 5, 2026
Kimi Antonelli
85%
George Russell
6%
Lando Norris
2%
Lewis Hamilton
2%
Charles Leclerc
1%
Max Verstappen
1%
Oscar Piastri
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Kimi Antonelli 85.3%
George Russell 5.8%
Lando Norris 2.3%
Lewis Hamilton 1.9%
$202,636,716 Vol.
$202,636,716 Vol.
Dec 5, 2026
Kimi Antonelli
$4,245,973 Vol.
85%
George Russell
$2,737,614 Vol.
6%
Lando Norris
$6,803,286 Vol.
2%
Lewis Hamilton
$5,371,134 Vol.
2%
Charles Leclerc
$5,306,648 Vol.
1%
Max Verstappen
$6,143,056 Vol.
1%
Oscar Piastri
$6,491,908 Vol.
<1%
Pierre Gasly
$11,510,403 Vol.
<1%
Liam Lawson
$10,719,256 Vol.
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
$12,049,424 Vol.
<1%
Isack Hadjar
$9,373,117 Vol.
<1%
Oliver Bearman
$12,897,812 Vol.
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
$10,925,714 Vol.
<1%
Franco Colapinto
$12,224,742 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.Kimi Antonelli holds an 85.3% implied probability in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship market after building a 66-point lead with 267 points following his victory from 19th on the grid at the Italian Grand Prix. The Mercedes driver's seven wins, strong qualifying pace, and consistency across most rounds have capitalized on the team's dominant car under the new regulations, outpacing teammate George Russell and challengers including Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris. With roughly nine events remaining, this margin reflects trader consensus on Antonelli's current form and Mercedes' edge. A string of mechanical issues, crashes, or sustained podium hauls by rivals could still narrow the gap before the season finale.
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ET
Volume
$202,636,716End Date
Dec 6, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.Kimi Antonelli holds an 85.3% implied probability in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship market after building a 66-point lead with 267 points following his victory from 19th on the grid at the Italian Grand Prix. The Mercedes driver's seven wins, strong qualifying pace, and consistency across most rounds have capitalized on the team's dominant car under the new regulations, outpacing teammate George Russell and challengers including Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris. With roughly nine events remaining, this margin reflects trader consensus on Antonelli's current form and Mercedes' edge. A string of mechanical issues, crashes, or sustained podium hauls by rivals could still narrow the gap before the season finale.
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Volume
$202,636,716End Date
Dec 6, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kimi Antonelli holds an 85.3% implied probability in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship market after building a 66-point lead with 267 points following his victory from 19th on the grid at the Italian Grand Prix. The Mercedes driver's seven wins, strong qualifying pace, and consistency across most rounds have capitalized on the team's dominant car under the new regulations, outpacing teammate George Russell and challengers including Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris. With roughly nine events remaining, this margin reflects trader consensus on Antonelli's current form and Mercedes' edge. A string of mechanical issues, crashes, or sustained podium hauls by rivals could still narrow the gap before the season finale.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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