Tesla's limited Cybercab production ramp since early 2026, focused almost entirely on internal robotaxi fleet operations in Austin rather than retail channels, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a qualifying consumer sale at $30,000 or below by year-end. With only dozens of purpose-built units registered in Texas and no official base price announced for public purchase, the company continues emphasizing fleet deployment, unboxed manufacturing efficiencies, and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation over individual sales. Recent NHTSA audits on safety certification and the absence of confirmed consumer deliveries—previously targeted for 2027—reinforce trader skepticism, even as regulatory expansions and potential FSD updates remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
14% probabilidad
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
14% probabilidad
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's limited Cybercab production ramp since early 2026, focused almost entirely on internal robotaxi fleet operations in Austin rather than retail channels, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a qualifying consumer sale at $30,000 or below by year-end. With only dozens of purpose-built units registered in Texas and no official base price announced for public purchase, the company continues emphasizing fleet deployment, unboxed manufacturing efficiencies, and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation over individual sales. Recent NHTSA audits on safety certification and the absence of confirmed consumer deliveries—previously targeted for 2027—reinforce trader skepticism, even as regulatory expansions and potential FSD updates remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$56,432Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's limited Cybercab production ramp since early 2026, focused almost entirely on internal robotaxi fleet operations in Austin rather than retail channels, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a qualifying consumer sale at $30,000 or below by year-end. With only dozens of purpose-built units registered in Texas and no official base price announced for public purchase, the company continues emphasizing fleet deployment, unboxed manufacturing efficiencies, and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation over individual sales. Recent NHTSA audits on safety certification and the absence of confirmed consumer deliveries—previously targeted for 2027—reinforce trader skepticism, even as regulatory expansions and potential FSD updates remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$56,432Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's limited Cybercab production ramp since early 2026, focused almost entirely on internal robotaxi fleet operations in Austin rather than retail channels, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a qualifying consumer sale at $30,000 or below by year-end. With only dozens of purpose-built units registered in Texas and no official base price announced for public purchase, the company continues emphasizing fleet deployment, unboxed manufacturing efficiencies, and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation over individual sales. Recent NHTSA audits on safety certification and the absence of confirmed consumer deliveries—previously targeted for 2027—reinforce trader skepticism, even as regulatory expansions and potential FSD updates remain key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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