Trader consensus assigning a 92.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, rests on assessments that Beijing continues to favor incremental gray-zone coercion—such as coast guard patrols, aircraft activity, and maritime surveys—over amphibious operations. Taiwan’s defense ministry report and U.S. intelligence evaluations indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient lift, logistics, and multi-axis landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with 2027 viewed as a modernization milestone rather than an operational deadline. Recent months have featured routine drills on both sides, reduced air incursions relative to prior years, and U.S.-China diplomatic contacts ahead of a planned leaders’ summit, without evidence of imminent escalation. These factors align with the market’s pricing of sustained restraint through mid-2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
8% probabilidad
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sí
8% probabilidad
$450,575 Vol.
$450,575 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigning a 92.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, rests on assessments that Beijing continues to favor incremental gray-zone coercion—such as coast guard patrols, aircraft activity, and maritime surveys—over amphibious operations. Taiwan’s defense ministry report and U.S. intelligence evaluations indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient lift, logistics, and multi-axis landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with 2027 viewed as a modernization milestone rather than an operational deadline. Recent months have featured routine drills on both sides, reduced air incursions relative to prior years, and U.S.-China diplomatic contacts ahead of a planned leaders’ summit, without evidence of imminent escalation. These factors align with the market’s pricing of sustained restraint through mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volumen
$450,575Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigning a 92.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, rests on assessments that Beijing continues to favor incremental gray-zone coercion—such as coast guard patrols, aircraft activity, and maritime surveys—over amphibious operations. Taiwan’s defense ministry report and U.S. intelligence evaluations indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient lift, logistics, and multi-axis landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with 2027 viewed as a modernization milestone rather than an operational deadline. Recent months have featured routine drills on both sides, reduced air incursions relative to prior years, and U.S.-China diplomatic contacts ahead of a planned leaders’ summit, without evidence of imminent escalation. These factors align with the market’s pricing of sustained restraint through mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$450,575Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigning a 92.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, rests on assessments that Beijing continues to favor incremental gray-zone coercion—such as coast guard patrols, aircraft activity, and maritime surveys—over amphibious operations. Taiwan’s defense ministry report and U.S. intelligence evaluations indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient lift, logistics, and multi-axis landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with 2027 viewed as a modernization milestone rather than an operational deadline. Recent months have featured routine drills on both sides, reduced air incursions relative to prior years, and U.S.-China diplomatic contacts ahead of a planned leaders’ summit, without evidence of imminent escalation. These factors align with the market’s pricing of sustained restraint through mid-2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes