**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 79.5% due to persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Despite June 2026 reports of Apple lobbying the Trump administration for assurances on sourcing DRAM from CXMT—then on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes—no confirmed purchases or supply agreements have materialized by September. CXMT’s new fifth-generation DRAM platform reached mass production in September with advanced 24Gb LPDDR5X chips already shipping to Chinese smartphone makers, yet its capacity remains largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, limiting availability for new global customers like Apple. Established suppliers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to dominate Apple’s memory needs, while political risks, potential Entity List placement, and reputational concerns reinforce the market’s view that meaningful 2026 purchases remain improbable absent major regulatory shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
21% probabilidad
$22,350 Vol.
$22,350 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
21% probabilidad
$22,350 Vol.
$22,350 Vol.
31 dic 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 79.5% due to persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Despite June 2026 reports of Apple lobbying the Trump administration for assurances on sourcing DRAM from CXMT—then on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes—no confirmed purchases or supply agreements have materialized by September. CXMT’s new fifth-generation DRAM platform reached mass production in September with advanced 24Gb LPDDR5X chips already shipping to Chinese smartphone makers, yet its capacity remains largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, limiting availability for new global customers like Apple. Established suppliers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to dominate Apple’s memory needs, while political risks, potential Entity List placement, and reputational concerns reinforce the market’s view that meaningful 2026 purchases remain improbable absent major regulatory shifts.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$22,350Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 79.5% due to persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Despite June 2026 reports of Apple lobbying the Trump administration for assurances on sourcing DRAM from CXMT—then on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes—no confirmed purchases or supply agreements have materialized by September. CXMT’s new fifth-generation DRAM platform reached mass production in September with advanced 24Gb LPDDR5X chips already shipping to Chinese smartphone makers, yet its capacity remains largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, limiting availability for new global customers like Apple. Established suppliers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to dominate Apple’s memory needs, while political risks, potential Entity List placement, and reputational concerns reinforce the market’s view that meaningful 2026 purchases remain improbable absent major regulatory shifts.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$22,350Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 79.5% due to persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Despite June 2026 reports of Apple lobbying the Trump administration for assurances on sourcing DRAM from CXMT—then on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes—no confirmed purchases or supply agreements have materialized by September. CXMT’s new fifth-generation DRAM platform reached mass production in September with advanced 24Gb LPDDR5X chips already shipping to Chinese smartphone makers, yet its capacity remains largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, limiting availability for new global customers like Apple. Established suppliers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to dominate Apple’s memory needs, while political risks, potential Entity List placement, and reputational concerns reinforce the market’s view that meaningful 2026 purchases remain improbable absent major regulatory shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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