**Strong regulatory and capacity constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration for clearance to source from ChangXin Memory Technologies amid an AI-driven consumer DRAM shortage that has tripled prices and forced product price hikes, while also testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military blacklist, triggering bipartisan congressional opposition and reputational risks that make formal approval uncertain. CXMT’s fabs are operating near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027 to domestic Chinese customers, leaving minimal uncommitted capacity for Apple’s scale even if limited China-specific shipments were approved. These political and supply realities have kept trader consensus tilted toward “No” despite Apple’s diversification push.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
23% probabilidad
$20,811 Vol.
$20,811 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
23% probabilidad
$20,811 Vol.
$20,811 Vol.
31 dic 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong regulatory and capacity constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration for clearance to source from ChangXin Memory Technologies amid an AI-driven consumer DRAM shortage that has tripled prices and forced product price hikes, while also testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military blacklist, triggering bipartisan congressional opposition and reputational risks that make formal approval uncertain. CXMT’s fabs are operating near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027 to domestic Chinese customers, leaving minimal uncommitted capacity for Apple’s scale even if limited China-specific shipments were approved. These political and supply realities have kept trader consensus tilted toward “No” despite Apple’s diversification push.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$20,811Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong regulatory and capacity constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration for clearance to source from ChangXin Memory Technologies amid an AI-driven consumer DRAM shortage that has tripled prices and forced product price hikes, while also testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military blacklist, triggering bipartisan congressional opposition and reputational risks that make formal approval uncertain. CXMT’s fabs are operating near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027 to domestic Chinese customers, leaving minimal uncommitted capacity for Apple’s scale even if limited China-specific shipments were approved. These political and supply realities have kept trader consensus tilted toward “No” despite Apple’s diversification push.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$20,811Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong regulatory and capacity constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied odds against Apple purchasing CXMT DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration for clearance to source from ChangXin Memory Technologies amid an AI-driven consumer DRAM shortage that has tripled prices and forced product price hikes, while also testing CXMT chips for China-market devices. However, CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military blacklist, triggering bipartisan congressional opposition and reputational risks that make formal approval uncertain. CXMT’s fabs are operating near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027 to domestic Chinese customers, leaving minimal uncommitted capacity for Apple’s scale even if limited China-specific shipments were approved. These political and supply realities have kept trader consensus tilted toward “No” despite Apple’s diversification push.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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