Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a strong position in Virginia’s 5th District due to its consistent Republican lean, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024, and his status as a sitting member who secured the GOP nomination with 84% in the August primary. Democratic nominee Tom Perriello, a former representative from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively but faces structural challenges in a district rated Likely or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Perriello’s substantial fundraising edge and recent attacks on McGuire’s stock trades, debate refusals, and constituent engagement have kept the race somewhat competitive in polling, yet these factors have not shifted the implied probability away from the incumbent ahead of early voting and the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVA-05 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
VA-05 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$66,472 Vol.
$66,472 Vol.
2 nov 2026
John McGuire (R)
84%
Tom Perriello (D)
15%
$66,472 Vol.
$66,472 Vol.
2 nov 2026
John McGuire (R)
$32,601 Vol.
84%
Tom Perriello (D)
$33,870 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a strong position in Virginia’s 5th District due to its consistent Republican lean, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024, and his status as a sitting member who secured the GOP nomination with 84% in the August primary. Democratic nominee Tom Perriello, a former representative from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively but faces structural challenges in a district rated Likely or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Perriello’s substantial fundraising edge and recent attacks on McGuire’s stock trades, debate refusals, and constituent engagement have kept the race somewhat competitive in polling, yet these factors have not shifted the implied probability away from the incumbent ahead of early voting and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$66,472Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a strong position in Virginia’s 5th District due to its consistent Republican lean, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024, and his status as a sitting member who secured the GOP nomination with 84% in the August primary. Democratic nominee Tom Perriello, a former representative from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively but faces structural challenges in a district rated Likely or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Perriello’s substantial fundraising edge and recent attacks on McGuire’s stock trades, debate refusals, and constituent engagement have kept the race somewhat competitive in polling, yet these factors have not shifted the implied probability away from the incumbent ahead of early voting and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$66,472Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds a strong position in Virginia’s 5th District due to its consistent Republican lean, including a 12-point Trump margin in 2024, and his status as a sitting member who secured the GOP nomination with 84% in the August primary. Democratic nominee Tom Perriello, a former representative from 2009-2011, won his primary decisively but faces structural challenges in a district rated Likely or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Perriello’s substantial fundraising edge and recent attacks on McGuire’s stock trades, debate refusals, and constituent engagement have kept the race somewhat competitive in polling, yet these factors have not shifted the implied probability away from the incumbent ahead of early voting and the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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