Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a consistent lead of 15–20 points or more in recent polls such as Datafolha and Quaest, with support near or above 49% and a path to victory in the October 4 first round. This positioning reflects sustained approval for his administration’s pro-market measures, including the Sabesp privatization, alongside Fernando Haddad’s elevated rejection rates as the main PT challenger. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible support, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the frontrunner. Trader consensus embeds the limited remaining window before voting and the absence of major late-breaking disruptions that could alter turnout or preferences in São Paulo’s large electorate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 98.4%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$312,132 Vol.
$312,132 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 98.4%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$312,132 Vol.
$312,132 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$147,719 Vol.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$51,553 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$79,124 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a consistent lead of 15–20 points or more in recent polls such as Datafolha and Quaest, with support near or above 49% and a path to victory in the October 4 first round. This positioning reflects sustained approval for his administration’s pro-market measures, including the Sabesp privatization, alongside Fernando Haddad’s elevated rejection rates as the main PT challenger. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible support, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the frontrunner. Trader consensus embeds the limited remaining window before voting and the absence of major late-breaking disruptions that could alter turnout or preferences in São Paulo’s large electorate.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$312,132Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a consistent lead of 15–20 points or more in recent polls such as Datafolha and Quaest, with support near or above 49% and a path to victory in the October 4 first round. This positioning reflects sustained approval for his administration’s pro-market measures, including the Sabesp privatization, alongside Fernando Haddad’s elevated rejection rates as the main PT challenger. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible support, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the frontrunner. Trader consensus embeds the limited remaining window before voting and the absence of major late-breaking disruptions that could alter turnout or preferences in São Paulo’s large electorate.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$312,132Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, holds a consistent lead of 15–20 points or more in recent polls such as Datafolha and Quaest, with support near or above 49% and a path to victory in the October 4 first round. This positioning reflects sustained approval for his administration’s pro-market measures, including the Sabesp privatization, alongside Fernando Haddad’s elevated rejection rates as the main PT challenger. Smaller candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França register negligible support, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the frontrunner. Trader consensus embeds the limited remaining window before voting and the absence of major late-breaking disruptions that could alter turnout or preferences in São Paulo’s large electorate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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