Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District House race, reflecting her decades-long incumbency, consistent overperformance relative to the district’s partisan lean, and substantial fundraising advantage. Redistricting added more Republican-leaning inland counties, shifting the seat to an R+5 Cook PVI and giving Donald Trump an 11-point margin under the new lines in 2024, yet Kaptur narrowly defeated the same Republican nominee, Derek Merrin, by roughly one point that year. Merrin secured the GOP nomination in the May primary and received a Trump endorsement, while recent campaign events have focused on contrasting economic records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or slight lean either way, underscoring how Kaptur’s established local delivery on projects and voter familiarity continue to anchor market expectations despite the altered map.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$31,714 Vol.
$31,714 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Marcy Kaptur (D)
68%
Derek Merrin (R)
31%
$31,714 Vol.
$31,714 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Marcy Kaptur (D)
$5,652 Vol.
68%
Derek Merrin (R)
$26,061 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District House race, reflecting her decades-long incumbency, consistent overperformance relative to the district’s partisan lean, and substantial fundraising advantage. Redistricting added more Republican-leaning inland counties, shifting the seat to an R+5 Cook PVI and giving Donald Trump an 11-point margin under the new lines in 2024, yet Kaptur narrowly defeated the same Republican nominee, Derek Merrin, by roughly one point that year. Merrin secured the GOP nomination in the May primary and received a Trump endorsement, while recent campaign events have focused on contrasting economic records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or slight lean either way, underscoring how Kaptur’s established local delivery on projects and voter familiarity continue to anchor market expectations despite the altered map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$31,714Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District House race, reflecting her decades-long incumbency, consistent overperformance relative to the district’s partisan lean, and substantial fundraising advantage. Redistricting added more Republican-leaning inland counties, shifting the seat to an R+5 Cook PVI and giving Donald Trump an 11-point margin under the new lines in 2024, yet Kaptur narrowly defeated the same Republican nominee, Derek Merrin, by roughly one point that year. Merrin secured the GOP nomination in the May primary and received a Trump endorsement, while recent campaign events have focused on contrasting economic records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or slight lean either way, underscoring how Kaptur’s established local delivery on projects and voter familiarity continue to anchor market expectations despite the altered map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,714Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District House race, reflecting her decades-long incumbency, consistent overperformance relative to the district’s partisan lean, and substantial fundraising advantage. Redistricting added more Republican-leaning inland counties, shifting the seat to an R+5 Cook PVI and giving Donald Trump an 11-point margin under the new lines in 2024, yet Kaptur narrowly defeated the same Republican nominee, Derek Merrin, by roughly one point that year. Merrin secured the GOP nomination in the May primary and received a Trump endorsement, while recent campaign events have focused on contrasting economic records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or slight lean either way, underscoring how Kaptur’s established local delivery on projects and voter familiarity continue to anchor market expectations despite the altered map.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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