Aaron Flint holds the lead in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat remains in a district that leans Republican, where Donald Trump carried the area by double digits in 2024 and the prior incumbent won comfortably. Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with Trump’s endorsement and backing from retiring Representative Ryan Zinke, positioning him as the continuity candidate in a district that includes rural counties favoring GOP turnout. Sam Forstag narrowed the gap after winning a competitive Democratic primary with support from national progressives and labor groups, then gained additional momentum from a September endorsement by former Republican governor and RNC chair Marc Racicot. Recent polling has shown a tight race, and Forstag’s fundraising velocity plus union crossover appeals keep the contest within reach for Democrats, though the baseline partisan tilt sustains Flint’s advantage in current market consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMT-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MT-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,260 Vol.
$11,260 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Aaron Flint (R)
62%
Sam Forstag (D)
38%
$11,260 Vol.
$11,260 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Aaron Flint (R)
$6,189 Vol.
62%
Sam Forstag (D)
$5,071 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds the lead in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat remains in a district that leans Republican, where Donald Trump carried the area by double digits in 2024 and the prior incumbent won comfortably. Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with Trump’s endorsement and backing from retiring Representative Ryan Zinke, positioning him as the continuity candidate in a district that includes rural counties favoring GOP turnout. Sam Forstag narrowed the gap after winning a competitive Democratic primary with support from national progressives and labor groups, then gained additional momentum from a September endorsement by former Republican governor and RNC chair Marc Racicot. Recent polling has shown a tight race, and Forstag’s fundraising velocity plus union crossover appeals keep the contest within reach for Democrats, though the baseline partisan tilt sustains Flint’s advantage in current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volumen
$11,260Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds the lead in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat remains in a district that leans Republican, where Donald Trump carried the area by double digits in 2024 and the prior incumbent won comfortably. Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with Trump’s endorsement and backing from retiring Representative Ryan Zinke, positioning him as the continuity candidate in a district that includes rural counties favoring GOP turnout. Sam Forstag narrowed the gap after winning a competitive Democratic primary with support from national progressives and labor groups, then gained additional momentum from a September endorsement by former Republican governor and RNC chair Marc Racicot. Recent polling has shown a tight race, and Forstag’s fundraising velocity plus union crossover appeals keep the contest within reach for Democrats, though the baseline partisan tilt sustains Flint’s advantage in current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,260Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Aaron Flint holds the lead in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat remains in a district that leans Republican, where Donald Trump carried the area by double digits in 2024 and the prior incumbent won comfortably. Flint secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with Trump’s endorsement and backing from retiring Representative Ryan Zinke, positioning him as the continuity candidate in a district that includes rural counties favoring GOP turnout. Sam Forstag narrowed the gap after winning a competitive Democratic primary with support from national progressives and labor groups, then gained additional momentum from a September endorsement by former Republican governor and RNC chair Marc Racicot. Recent polling has shown a tight race, and Forstag’s fundraising velocity plus union crossover appeals keep the contest within reach for Democrats, though the baseline partisan tilt sustains Flint’s advantage in current market consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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