Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman’s decisive May 2026 primary win over challenger Jon Kenworthy and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index anchor trader expectations for a Republican margin of victory centered in the low-to-mid 20s. Kelly Thompson’s unopposed Democratic primary and limited fundraising have not altered the structural dynamics of this northeast Indiana seat anchored by Fort Wayne. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Stutzman’s prior 65% general-election performance. With the November 3 general election still weeks away, the market reflects the absence of major late-cycle polling shifts or campaign events capable of narrowing the gap, while the low probability on a Democratic win underscores the barriers posed by the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRepublican 20-25% 32%
Republican 25-30% 26%
Republican 15-20% 21%
Republican 30-35% 11.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republican 40%+
6%
Republican 35-40%
7%
Republican 30-35%
12%
Republican 25-30%
26%
Republican 20-25%
32%
Republican 15-20%
21%
Republican 10-15%
4%
Republican 0-10%
5%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 20-25% 32%
Republican 25-30% 26%
Republican 15-20% 21%
Republican 30-35% 11.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republican 40%+
$300 Vol.
6%
Republican 35-40%
$175 Vol.
7%
Republican 30-35%
$329 Vol.
12%
Republican 25-30%
$878 Vol.
26%
Republican 20-25%
$1,141 Vol.
32%
Republican 15-20%
$274 Vol.
21%
Republican 10-15%
$429 Vol.
4%
Republican 0-10%
$283 Vol.
5%
Democrat Wins
$170 Vol.
1%
The 2026 IN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman’s decisive May 2026 primary win over challenger Jon Kenworthy and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index anchor trader expectations for a Republican margin of victory centered in the low-to-mid 20s. Kelly Thompson’s unopposed Democratic primary and limited fundraising have not altered the structural dynamics of this northeast Indiana seat anchored by Fort Wayne. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Stutzman’s prior 65% general-election performance. With the November 3 general election still weeks away, the market reflects the absence of major late-cycle polling shifts or campaign events capable of narrowing the gap, while the low probability on a Democratic win underscores the barriers posed by the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage.
The 2026 IN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 11:03 AM ET
Volumen
$3,979Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman’s decisive May 2026 primary win over challenger Jon Kenworthy and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index anchor trader expectations for a Republican margin of victory centered in the low-to-mid 20s. Kelly Thompson’s unopposed Democratic primary and limited fundraising have not altered the structural dynamics of this northeast Indiana seat anchored by Fort Wayne. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Stutzman’s prior 65% general-election performance. With the November 3 general election still weeks away, the market reflects the absence of major late-cycle polling shifts or campaign events capable of narrowing the gap, while the low probability on a Democratic win underscores the barriers posed by the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage.
The 2026 IN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,979Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman’s decisive May 2026 primary win over challenger Jon Kenworthy and the district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index anchor trader expectations for a Republican margin of victory centered in the low-to-mid 20s. Kelly Thompson’s unopposed Democratic primary and limited fundraising have not altered the structural dynamics of this northeast Indiana seat anchored by Fort Wayne. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Stutzman’s prior 65% general-election performance. With the November 3 general election still weeks away, the market reflects the absence of major late-cycle polling shifts or campaign events capable of narrowing the gap, while the low probability on a Democratic win underscores the barriers posed by the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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