Frank Mrvan, the Democratic incumbent since 2021, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Indiana 1st congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 6.5-point margin there in 2024, combined with his strong primary performance and established local support base, particularly in Lake County where most voters reside. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Mrvan's repeated ability to outperform the top of the ticket in prior cycles. Barb Regnitz, the Republican nominee and former Porter County commissioner who secured her party's nod in May, benefits from a Trump endorsement but faces structural headwinds in a district with significant non-White voting blocs and limited recent public polling. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns for incumbents in similar seats, though a major national partisan shift, turnout surge, or late-cycle development could narrow the gap before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Frank Mrvan (D)
94%
Barb Regnitz (R)
2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Frank Mrvan (D)
$3,063 Vol.
94%
Barb Regnitz (R)
$3,955 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Frank Mrvan, the Democratic incumbent since 2021, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Indiana 1st congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 6.5-point margin there in 2024, combined with his strong primary performance and established local support base, particularly in Lake County where most voters reside. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Mrvan's repeated ability to outperform the top of the ticket in prior cycles. Barb Regnitz, the Republican nominee and former Porter County commissioner who secured her party's nod in May, benefits from a Trump endorsement but faces structural headwinds in a district with significant non-White voting blocs and limited recent public polling. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns for incumbents in similar seats, though a major national partisan shift, turnout surge, or late-cycle development could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
Volumen
$7,017Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Frank Mrvan, the Democratic incumbent since 2021, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Indiana 1st congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 6.5-point margin there in 2024, combined with his strong primary performance and established local support base, particularly in Lake County where most voters reside. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Mrvan's repeated ability to outperform the top of the ticket in prior cycles. Barb Regnitz, the Republican nominee and former Porter County commissioner who secured her party's nod in May, benefits from a Trump endorsement but faces structural headwinds in a district with significant non-White voting blocs and limited recent public polling. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns for incumbents in similar seats, though a major national partisan shift, turnout surge, or late-cycle development could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$7,017Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Frank Mrvan, the Democratic incumbent since 2021, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Indiana 1st congressional district race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 6.5-point margin there in 2024, combined with his strong primary performance and established local support base, particularly in Lake County where most voters reside. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Mrvan's repeated ability to outperform the top of the ticket in prior cycles. Barb Regnitz, the Republican nominee and former Porter County commissioner who secured her party's nod in May, benefits from a Trump endorsement but faces structural headwinds in a district with significant non-White voting blocs and limited recent public polling. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns for incumbents in similar seats, though a major national partisan shift, turnout surge, or late-cycle development could narrow the gap before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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