The French Socialist primary, scheduled for a first round on 9-10 October 2026, features a fragmented field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS first secretary Olivier Faure, and candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Recent declarations through mid-September, combined with internal divisions over the closed electorate and participation rules, have sustained uncertainty about whether any contender can secure an outright majority among party members and affiliated voters. Glucksmann leads available polling averages, yet the presence of multiple established figures and ongoing coalition tensions within the broader left create conditions for a runoff. Further candidate withdrawals, consolidated endorsements, or late polling shifts could alter the balance ahead of voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
50% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 oct 2026
Sí
50% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 oct 2026
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The French Socialist primary, scheduled for a first round on 9-10 October 2026, features a fragmented field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS first secretary Olivier Faure, and candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Recent declarations through mid-September, combined with internal divisions over the closed electorate and participation rules, have sustained uncertainty about whether any contender can secure an outright majority among party members and affiliated voters. Glucksmann leads available polling averages, yet the presence of multiple established figures and ongoing coalition tensions within the broader left create conditions for a runoff. Further candidate withdrawals, consolidated endorsements, or late polling shifts could alter the balance ahead of voting.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Mercado abierto: Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The French Socialist primary, scheduled for a first round on 9-10 October 2026, features a fragmented field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS first secretary Olivier Faure, and candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Recent declarations through mid-September, combined with internal divisions over the closed electorate and participation rules, have sustained uncertainty about whether any contender can secure an outright majority among party members and affiliated voters. Glucksmann leads available polling averages, yet the presence of multiple established figures and ongoing coalition tensions within the broader left create conditions for a runoff. Further candidate withdrawals, consolidated endorsements, or late polling shifts could alter the balance ahead of voting.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The French Socialist primary, scheduled for a first round on 9-10 October 2026, features a fragmented field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS first secretary Olivier Faure, and candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Recent declarations through mid-September, combined with internal divisions over the closed electorate and participation rules, have sustained uncertainty about whether any contender can secure an outright majority among party members and affiliated voters. Glucksmann leads available polling averages, yet the presence of multiple established figures and ongoing coalition tensions within the broader left create conditions for a runoff. Further candidate withdrawals, consolidated endorsements, or late polling shifts could alter the balance ahead of voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganará Raphaël Glucksmann la primera vuelta de las primarias socialistas francesas?
36%
Sí
¿Terminará Philippe Brun en segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las primarias socialistas francesas?
42%
Sí
¿Se cancelarán las primarias de Izquierda Unida de 2026 para las elecciones presidenciales francesas de 2027?
92%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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