**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Erdoğan fuera para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?
¿Erdoğan fuera para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?
Sí
6% probabilidad
$635,569 Vol.
$635,569 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Gana un 3.25%
Sí
6% probabilidad
$635,569 Vol.
$635,569 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Gana un 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volumen
$635,569Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$635,569Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...**Erdoğan's constitutionally mandated second term runs through 2028, with the next presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2028.** No snap election has been called, and parliamentary arithmetic shows the ruling AKP-MHP alliance short of the 360-seat threshold needed for an early vote that could alter term limits. Recent developments, including the 2026 PKK disarmament legislation and sustained legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the ousted CHP leadership, have further consolidated the president's position without triggering succession pressures or health-related incapacity. Traders price the 94.5% probability for "No" on the absence of any verified mechanism or catalyst for departure before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, consistent with the timeline and institutional controls in place.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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