Apple’s long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with new models typically announced in September and shipping weeks later, underpins the near-certain market odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company’s September 9 event confirmed this pattern by unveiling iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the foldable iPhone Duo, all slated for pre-orders and availability before year-end. Supply-chain reports and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus that at least part of the 2026 lineup will reach consumers this calendar year. While a reported delay of the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 due to component shortages introduces minor timing risk, it does not alter the overall 2026 release window for premium variants. Regulatory hurdles or unforeseen production setbacks remain low-probability outliers given Apple’s track record.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
>99% Chance
$214,672 Vol.
$214,672 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
>99% Chance
$214,672 Vol.
$214,672 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with new models typically announced in September and shipping weeks later, underpins the near-certain market odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company’s September 9 event confirmed this pattern by unveiling iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the foldable iPhone Duo, all slated for pre-orders and availability before year-end. Supply-chain reports and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus that at least part of the 2026 lineup will reach consumers this calendar year. While a reported delay of the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 due to component shortages introduces minor timing risk, it does not alter the overall 2026 release window for premium variants. Regulatory hurdles or unforeseen production setbacks remain low-probability outliers given Apple’s track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$214,672Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with new models typically announced in September and shipping weeks later, underpins the near-certain market odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company’s September 9 event confirmed this pattern by unveiling iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the foldable iPhone Duo, all slated for pre-orders and availability before year-end. Supply-chain reports and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus that at least part of the 2026 lineup will reach consumers this calendar year. While a reported delay of the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 due to component shortages introduces minor timing risk, it does not alter the overall 2026 release window for premium variants. Regulatory hurdles or unforeseen production setbacks remain low-probability outliers given Apple’s track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$214,672Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with new models typically announced in September and shipping weeks later, underpins the near-certain market odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company’s September 9 event confirmed this pattern by unveiling iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the foldable iPhone Duo, all slated for pre-orders and availability before year-end. Supply-chain reports and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus that at least part of the 2026 lineup will reach consumers this calendar year. While a reported delay of the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 due to component shortages introduces minor timing risk, it does not alter the overall 2026 release window for premium variants. Regulatory hurdles or unforeseen production setbacks remain low-probability outliers given Apple’s track record.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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