The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election drives the market, with polls showing a fragmented field where CDU, Linke, Grüne, and AfD cluster near 15–22 percent and SPD trails. This makes a two-party majority unlikely under the five-percent threshold, pointing instead to three-party coalitions such as a Kenya alliance (CDU–SPD–Grüne) or red-red-green (SPD–Grüne–Linke). The longstanding firewall excluding AfD cooperation leaves SPD and Grüne as pivotal kingmakers after incumbent CDU Mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and replacement by Stefan Evers. Recent polling volatility and voter emphasis on housing and transport further shape coalition prospects, with post-election negotiations expected to determine the final governing parties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
31. Dez. 2026
Grüne
89%
SPD
89%
Linke
50%
CDU
28%
FW
4%
FDP
4%
BSW
3%
AfD
2%
$6,750 Vol.
Grüne
$242 Vol.
89%
SPD
$249 Vol.
89%
Linke
$2,227 Vol.
50%
CDU
$1,602 Vol.
28%
FW
$661 Vol.
4%
FDP
$210 Vol.
4%
BSW
$290 Vol.
3%
AfD
$1,269 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election drives the market, with polls showing a fragmented field where CDU, Linke, Grüne, and AfD cluster near 15–22 percent and SPD trails. This makes a two-party majority unlikely under the five-percent threshold, pointing instead to three-party coalitions such as a Kenya alliance (CDU–SPD–Grüne) or red-red-green (SPD–Grüne–Linke). The longstanding firewall excluding AfD cooperation leaves SPD and Grüne as pivotal kingmakers after incumbent CDU Mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and replacement by Stefan Evers. Recent polling volatility and voter emphasis on housing and transport further shape coalition prospects, with post-election negotiations expected to determine the final governing parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volumen
$6,750Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election drives the market, with polls showing a fragmented field where CDU, Linke, Grüne, and AfD cluster near 15–22 percent and SPD trails. This makes a two-party majority unlikely under the five-percent threshold, pointing instead to three-party coalitions such as a Kenya alliance (CDU–SPD–Grüne) or red-red-green (SPD–Grüne–Linke). The longstanding firewall excluding AfD cooperation leaves SPD and Grüne as pivotal kingmakers after incumbent CDU Mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and replacement by Stefan Evers. Recent polling volatility and voter emphasis on housing and transport further shape coalition prospects, with post-election negotiations expected to determine the final governing parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volumen
$6,750Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election drives the market, with polls showing a fragmented field where CDU, Linke, Grüne, and AfD cluster near 15–22 percent and SPD trails. This makes a two-party majority unlikely under the five-percent threshold, pointing instead to three-party coalitions such as a Kenya alliance (CDU–SPD–Grüne) or red-red-green (SPD–Grüne–Linke). The longstanding firewall excluding AfD cooperation leaves SPD and Grüne as pivotal kingmakers after incumbent CDU Mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and replacement by Stefan Evers. Recent polling volatility and voter emphasis on housing and transport further shape coalition prospects, with post-election negotiations expected to determine the final governing parties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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