The Storm Prediction Center’s September 24, 2026, Day 1 Convective Outlook placed a marginal severe risk across the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas, driven by moderate low-level moisture and weak instability, but explicitly showed no tornado probability areas. Weak deep-layer shear favored disorganized multicell storms with primarily damaging wind or hail threats rather than organized supercells. NWS post-event surveys will determine any confirmed tornadoes and their paths for market resolution, while later outlooks for September 25–27 indicated even lower severe potential across the central and southern Plains. Trader sentiment reflects the low tornado odds implied by the official guidance and historical rarity of late-September events in those regions.