Trader sentiment around OpenAI resuming training on its next large language model reflects high uncertainty, with probabilities spread across early-to-mid October dates and no single outcome exceeding 15%. The leading "not resumed by October 20" share at 15% underscores risks of extended pauses common in frontier AI development, often tied to safety reviews, hardware scaling, or alignment checks before full runs begin. Competitive dynamics with labs like Anthropic and Google add pressure to accelerate, yet absent official confirmation on timelines or compute milestones leaves traders focused on indirect signals such as leadership comments or infrastructure updates. Upcoming earnings calls or developer events could provide clarifying catalysts before the market resolves.