**Iran's supreme leader succession occurred in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a late-February U.S.-Israeli strike.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, establishing an interim council under the constitution before the vote. Trader views on further leadership change by late 2026 now center on Mojtaba's reported health issues, his limited public role, and the IRGC's expanded influence over policy and appointments. Recent hardline cabinet and military decrees, combined with ongoing regional conflict and internal dissent over hereditary succession, sustain uncertainty. Upcoming factors include any visible shifts in the Supreme Leader's capacity or Assembly of Experts deliberations, which could alter probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$25,149,119 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
30. September
2%
31. Oktober
6%
30. November
9%
31. Dezember
14%
30. Juni 2027
28%
$25,149,119 Vol.
30. September
$1,028,671 Vol.
2%
31. Oktober
$71,760 Vol.
6%
30. November
$36,648 Vol.
9%
31. Dezember
$4,434,373 Vol.
14%
30. Juni 2027
$290,529 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's supreme leader succession occurred in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a late-February U.S.-Israeli strike.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, establishing an interim council under the constitution before the vote. Trader views on further leadership change by late 2026 now center on Mojtaba's reported health issues, his limited public role, and the IRGC's expanded influence over policy and appointments. Recent hardline cabinet and military decrees, combined with ongoing regional conflict and internal dissent over hereditary succession, sustain uncertainty. Upcoming factors include any visible shifts in the Supreme Leader's capacity or Assembly of Experts deliberations, which could alter probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volumen
$25,149,119Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's supreme leader succession occurred in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a late-February U.S.-Israeli strike.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, establishing an interim council under the constitution before the vote. Trader views on further leadership change by late 2026 now center on Mojtaba's reported health issues, his limited public role, and the IRGC's expanded influence over policy and appointments. Recent hardline cabinet and military decrees, combined with ongoing regional conflict and internal dissent over hereditary succession, sustain uncertainty. Upcoming factors include any visible shifts in the Supreme Leader's capacity or Assembly of Experts deliberations, which could alter probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$25,149,119Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Iran's supreme leader succession occurred in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a late-February U.S.-Israeli strike.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, establishing an interim council under the constitution before the vote. Trader views on further leadership change by late 2026 now center on Mojtaba's reported health issues, his limited public role, and the IRGC's expanded influence over policy and appointments. Recent hardline cabinet and military decrees, combined with ongoing regional conflict and internal dissent over hereditary succession, sustain uncertainty. Upcoming factors include any visible shifts in the Supreme Leader's capacity or Assembly of Experts deliberations, which could alter probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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