President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in connection with immigration enforcement operations and related protests in cities including Los Angeles, Portland, and Minneapolis since early 2025, but the administration has instead relied on other authorities such as 10 U.S.C. § 12406 to federalize National Guard units. Federal courts, including the Supreme Court in Trump v. Illinois and the Ninth Circuit in October 2026, have blocked several of those deployments, reinforcing the high statutory threshold for Insurrection Act use. With the November 3, 2026 midterms approaching, traders assign low probability to near-term invocation because no qualifying unrest has met the legal standard, prior threats have not materialized, and institutional restraint plus judicial review continue to shape outcomes.