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Politik·Midterms

IA-03 Wahlsieger

icon for IA-03 Wahlsieger
Politik·Midterms

IA-03 Wahlsieger

Polymarket

$10,703 Vol.

Polymarket

$10,703 Vol.

Sarah Trone Garriott (D)

$4,565 Vol.

77%

Zach Nunn (R)

$6,138 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Trone Garriott holds a strong lead in trader pricing for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, reflecting the seat’s narrow margins in recent cycles and the typical midterm advantage for the opposition party. The district, rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by several forecasters, features an R+2 partisan voter index but has changed hands multiple times since 2010. Garriott, a state senator with proven success in competitive areas, outraised incumbent Zach Nunn through June and has rolled out television ads emphasizing health care access and costs in September. Nunn, an Air Force Reserve colonel who flipped the seat in 2022 and held it narrowly in 2024, faces headwinds from national conditions and the district’s history of close general elections. Both candidates remain active on the trail with roughly seven weeks until November 3 voting.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$10,703
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Trone Garriott holds a strong lead in trader pricing for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, reflecting the seat’s narrow margins in recent cycles and the typical midterm advantage for the opposition party. The district, rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by several forecasters, features an R+2 partisan voter index but has changed hands multiple times since 2010. Garriott, a state senator with proven success in competitive areas, outraised incumbent Zach Nunn through June and has rolled out television ads emphasizing health care access and costs in September. Nunn, an Air Force Reserve colonel who flipped the seat in 2022 and held it narrowly in 2024, faces headwinds from national conditions and the district’s history of close general elections. Both candidates remain active on the trail with roughly seven weeks until November 3 voting.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$10,703
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den IA-02 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den IA-02 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

56%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den AR-03 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den AR-03 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz PA-03 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz PA-03 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

96%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„IA-03 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Sarah Trone Garriott (D)" mit 77%, gefolgt von „Zach Nunn (R)" mit 24%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 77¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „IA-03 Wahlsieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $10.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 16, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „IA-03 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „IA-03 Wahlsieger" ist „Sarah Trone Garriott (D)" mit 77%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Zach Nunn (R)" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „IA-03 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.