Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ events per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges. Trader sentiment currently favors lower counts (≤6 at 28% implied probability) amid the absence of major aftershock sequences, volcanic swarms, or foreshock clusters that could elevate activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire or other high-strain regions. Key variables include random Poisson variability in larger events, potential for clustering in areas like Papua New Guinea or Tonga, and any rapid updates from real-time catalogs that might reveal emerging sequences before week’s end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben mit einer Stärke von 5,5 oder mehr gibt es weltweit vom 21. bis 27. September?
≤6 26%
7 14%
8 14%
9 11%

≤6
26%

7
14%

8
14%

9
11%

10
8%

11
9%

12
8%

13
8%

mehr als 13
7%
≤6 26%
7 14%
8 14%
9 11%

≤6
26%

7
14%

8
14%

9
11%

10
8%

11
9%

12
8%

13
8%

mehr als 13
7%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ events per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges. Trader sentiment currently favors lower counts (≤6 at 28% implied probability) amid the absence of major aftershock sequences, volcanic swarms, or foreshock clusters that could elevate activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire or other high-strain regions. Key variables include random Poisson variability in larger events, potential for clustering in areas like Papua New Guinea or Tonga, and any rapid updates from real-time catalogs that might reveal emerging sequences before week’s end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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